Phase-gated roadmap · 22 July 2026

Evidence opens each phase; the roadmap makes no calendar promise.

The sequence separates chartered feasibility research from optional hardware and field work. A phase moves only when its exit evidence exists and the named decision-maker has authorised the next boundary.

How to read this roadmap

The publication date identifies this evidence checkpoint. No start date, finish date, duration, or delivery commitment is assigned to any phase. “Complete” means the stated evidence exists; it does not turn a failed trace into an accepted design.

P0 to P4

Entry evidence, exit evidence, and authority are separate gates.

Phase and state Entry evidence Exit evidence Transition authority
P0 · Requirements baseline
Complete for study
The AAO feasibility-study charter and the open RFS-011 questions defined the working decision set. RFS-054 recorded advisory defaults: 500 ha per fleet per hour, binding 120 m AGL baseline, COTS-first survey payload, custom reflective research, and a 2 kg-capable airframe class. Inspect the evidence ledger. Inside research charter. A dated Dani/RFS answer may supersede a default and reopen affected evidence.
P1 · Retargeted prescriptions and preliminary traces
Evidence complete; optical gates failed
P0 selected the 25 mm F/3.2 survey target and 50 mm F/4 fallback. RFS-042 to RFS-044 made the optimizer target-aware, two-axis, and capable of tracing the survey field. RFS-045 and RFS-046 produced labelled-preliminary 13-field traces. The 25 mm report failed multiple optical gates; the 50 mm fallback report passed plate scale and no-vignetting but failed clearance, detector-plane RMS, and flat-image gates. Inside research charter. The failures support changing architecture; they do not authorise relaxed gates.
P2 · Three-design shortlist and tolerance budgets
Current chartered phase
The P1 failures and multi-mirror screen establish the obstruction and image-quality problem. RFS-019 and RFS-028 remain open; RFS-052 is the next implementation step. Three viable candidates with import-ready prescriptions, per-field no-vignetting and detector-plane evidence, flat-image assessment, package and mass checks, and a preliminary tolerance budget for each. Inside research charter. Moving from prescriptions to hardware requires a separate AAO decision.
P3 · Optional bench demonstration
Not authorised
AAO records that bench work is in scope, funds the hardware path, and unblocks RFS-056. Detector raw/radiometric export evidence and the selected compute/storage path are also recorded. Bench frames carry NUC state, timestamps, checksums, calibration state, and replay metadata; capture and detector replay pass the stated bench gates. AAO decision required. Completing a bench demonstration does not authorise flight work.
P4 · Optional field demonstration
Not authorised
RFS engagement records the trial purpose, target class, test area, operating altitude, aircraft and safety responsibilities, and acceptance metrics. P3 evidence or an explicitly accepted equivalent is available. A controlled field dataset and review record report detection probability, false alarms per sortie, geolocation, calibration drift, environmental conditions, and failure cases against the validation plan. RFS engagement required, together with the applicable aviation, site, and safety authorities. This transition is outside the research charter.

Current position

P2 is open because P1 measured a negative result.

P0 and P1 produced their required evidence, but neither the 25 mm survey prescription nor its 50 mm fallback is prototype-ready. The next ordered engineering item is RFS-052: generalise the optimizer for the multi-mirror shortlist path.

A negative architecture result may close an investigation, but P2 exits only with the chartered three-design shortlist and its tolerance evidence.

Decision boundaries

Research can continue; hardware and field work need named human decisions.

Research charter

P0 through P2 cover requirements interpretation, computed feasibility, prescriptions, and tolerance evidence.

AAO boundary

P3 starts only if AAO places hardware purchase and bench work inside scope and budget.

RFS boundary

P4 starts only with RFS engagement and a recorded trial, operating, safety, and acceptance basis.

No implied approval

No vendor contact, purchase, bench result, flight trial, or stakeholder acceptance is inferred by this roadmap.