End-to-end simulation - 29 May 2026

The first full-row detection checkpoint is repeatable.

EmberScope links target radiance, detector noise, optical throughput, image spread, survey geometry, and false-positive floors in one deterministic scenario table.

Review scenario table Open radiometry model Open survey model Open validation plan

Current result

Hot centimetre-scale targets clear the first gate; weak warm edges do not at the 120 m clutter-stress setting.

302.2x First-gate margin for a 3 cm, 700 K target in the 80 m balanced sweep row.

8.5x Margin for the 120 m, 3 cm, 430 K hot-char row under sun-warmed clutter stress.

0.1x Margin for the 120 m, 1 cm, 330 K weak warm-edge stress row.

5.4x Margin for the same weak warm-edge target in a 35 m validation pass.

Model boundary

This is a first-gate simulation, not a field-validated detection-probability claim.

The calculation reuses the Planck, fill-factor, low-altitude transmission, and NETD radiometry model plus the current survey operations model. It then applies a three-mirror LWIR throughput proxy, image-energy fractions, calibration residuals, and explicit false-positive apparent-temperature floors.

The detection threshold is the larger of a six-sigma detector and calibration gate or the selected false-positive floor. The margin is the throughput- and image-spread-adjusted apparent temperature contrast divided by that threshold.

Scenario results

The weak row is visible instead of hidden behind the easy flame cases.

Bar chart showing end-to-end first-gate margins for EmberScope simulation scenarios. — Detection-margin bars are capped at 25x threshold; the vertical line marks the 1x pass or fail gate.

Scenario	Target	GSD	Revisit	Adjusted delta	Threshold	Margin	Disposition
80 m balanced sweep, flame proxy	3.0 cm, 700 K	4.0 cm	146.8 min	209.89 K	0.69 K	302.2x	Strong first-gate margin
80 m balanced sweep, ember proxy	1.0 cm, 700 K	4.0 cm	146.8 min	23.32 K	0.69 K	33.6x	Strong first-gate margin
120 m wide sweep, hot-char clutter stress	3.0 cm, 430 K	5.9 cm	65.2 min	16.95 K	2.00 K	8.5x	Passes first gate
120 m wide sweep, weak warm edge	1.0 cm, 330 K	5.9 cm	65.2 min	0.23 K	2.00 K	0.1x	Below first gate
35 m validation pass, weak warm edge	1.0 cm, 330 K	1.7 cm	9395.5 min	3.75 K	0.69 K	5.4x	Passes first gate
120 m ten-drone cycle, hot-char stress	3.0 cm, 430 K	5.9 cm	6.5 min	16.95 K	2.00 K	8.5x	Passes first gate

Adjusted delta includes optical throughput and image-energy fractions. The review-pressure proxy and raw output table are in the generated end-to-end CSV artifact.

Engineering readout

The next optical and field tasks have a shared scoring row.

Hot targets are not the limiting case

The hot 3 cm and 1 cm rows retain large first-gate margin after throughput and image-spread allowances.

120 m weak edges fail the current stress test

The 1 cm, 330 K weak warm-edge row falls below the sun-warmed clutter floor at the current wide-sweep altitude.

Validation flights are a different mode

The 35 m pass rescues the weak target, but its route spacing is too tight for broad-area search.

Fleet size changes revisit only

The ten-drone row improves rediscovery timing without improving single-pass contrast, optics, or calibration.

Next closure

The provisional values name the measurements needed next.

The false-positive floors need Rural Fire Service stakeholder review and no-fire flight data. The image-energy fractions need to be replaced by real PSF/MTF/ensquared-energy output from the chosen optical prescription.

Published artifacts are the scenario CSV, scenario JSON, and the local technical report at projects/rural-fire-service-camera/end-to-end-simulation-report-2026-05-29.md.